There is a very cool website out there called Cool Standings. They track MLB Baseball, NFL Football and NBA Basketball standings throughout the year, and work out a percentage that any given team has of:
A. Making the Playoffs
B. Winning their Division
C. Winning the Wild Card
You can check out how they come up with these percentages here.
One section that I found the most interesting was the Biggest Comebacks section. Being an Astros fan, I remember in 2004 and 2005 the Astros were considered all but done.....only to make big second half comebacks which resulted in playoff appearances (and in 2005, their only World Series appearance). So where do these comebacks rank on the all-time comebacks list? Here's the Top 10:
Format: % as of date (% chance of making the playoffs as of date shown)
1. 1914 Boston Braves
<0.1% as of 7/4/1914
2. 2005 Houston Astros
0.2% as of 6/7/2005
3. 1964 St. Louis Cardinals
0.2% as of 7/24/1964
4. 1973 New York Mets
0.2% as of 8/5/1973
5. 1951 New York Giants
0.3% as of 8/12/1951
6. 2004 Houston Astros
0.6% as of 8/26/2004
7. 1978 New York Yankees
0.6% as of 7/18/1978
8. 1930 St. Louis Cardinals
0.7% as of 8/19/1930
9. 1934 St. Louis Cardinals
0.7% as of 9/6/1934
10. 1936 New York Giants
0.7% as of 7/14/1936
Also worth a read are the Top Collapses of all time.
So the moral of the story for us Astros fans? Never give up hope for our team. On that 2005 team (the year we went to the World Series), the Astros were 15-30 (15 games below .500) in late May. From then until the end of July, the Astros went 42-17. They ended up winning the NL Wild Card on the final day of the regular season.
And what are our 2009 post-season chances as of today (04/24/2009)?
7.3% to make the Playoffs
3.8% to win the Wild Card
3.5% to win the Division
Never say never!
Friday, April 24, 2009
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