AFC / NFC Championships

This is a big week for the NFL - the AFC and NFC Championship games. We will finally know who is going to be playing off for the Lombardi trophy in a couple of weeks. I didn't do so well with my picks last week, only getting the Steelers over the Chargers right. Last year in the playoffs, I picked all but 2 or 3 games right I think, so at least that means this year is more unpredictable. The 'Any Given Sunday' thing really seems to mean something this year.

With that said, we have a couple of very good games lined up for this weekend. I will try to give a bit of a breakdown on each game and give my take. Hopefully I can go 2 for 2 this week to make up for last week.

NFC Championship - Sunday at 1:00 pm MST
AT

Philadelphia is a 3 point favorite on the road at Arizona.

These two teams met up once this year, with the following result:

November 27, 2008
Arizona - 20 @ Philadelphia - 48

During the regular season, Philadelphia had a 3-4-1 record on the road (click on the 1 to discover just how smart Donovan McNabb really is). Arizona had a 6-2 record at home.

Offensive and Defensive rankings for both teams during the regular season:

Philadelphia
-9th total offense, 3rd total defense
Arizona
-4th total offense, 19th total defense

This is another tough game to predict, because Arizona has been so streaky this year. As the stats show, Arizona is a much better team at home. I truly hate the Eagles, mostly because of Donovan McNabb. However, logic might say that there is an experience factor here too. McNabb has reached the NFC Championship game 5 times in his 10 years with the Eagles. The Cardinals, however, have never been to the NFC Championship before. Both teams are on a roll, and both teams are going to have to rely heavily on their passing games. If the Cardinals do win, I think it will be close - but if they lose, I think it will be a blowout. It's a tough decision to make, but give me the Cardinals at home.

AFC Championship - Sunday at 4:30 pm MST
AT

Pittsburgh is a 5.5 point favorite at home to Baltimore.

These two teams met up twice this year, with the following results:

September 29, 2008
Baltimore - 20 @ Pittsburgh - 23

December 14, 2008
Pittsburgh - 13 @ Baltimore - 9

During the regular season, Baltimore had a 5-3 record on the road. Pittsburgh had a 6-2 record at home.

Offensive and Defensive rankings for both teams during the regular season:

Baltimore
-18th total offense, 2nd total defense
Pittsburgh
-22nd total offense, 1st total defense

I don't think you can take two teams in the NFL right now and put together a better (or closer) game than this one. The Number 1 v.s. The Number 2 ranked defenses. No wonder the Over/Under is only set at 34 points as of right now. Before Baltimore and Joe Flacco beat the Titans last weekend, no rookie QB had ever won his first two NFL playoff games. However, Flacco has done it without much flash. In his two playoff games, his combined stats aren't that pretty:

20-45 (44.4% completion percentage)
196 Yds
1 TD

However, Flacco has been good where it counts - he hasn't turned over the ball. The Baltimore defense led by co-ordinator Rex Ryan scares me. They are so complete, motivated and efficient. Pittsburgh always seems to find a way to win, especially at home. With Willie Parker now as healthy as he has been in a long time, the running game has looked a pile better, which only helps open things up for Big Ben and the passing game. To me, Baltimore doesn't have the weapons on offense to compete with the Steelers. Although they were outranked by Baltimore in total yards over the course of the regular season, that was generally without Willie Parker. I like the Steelers to win, and I think they will cover. As a sneak preview for you....I think whoever wins this game will win the Super Bowl.

Do you have some different ideas on who will win? Feel free to post a comment below!